@christinesh
Bitcoin closed above the May high, which is technically a point for the bulls, and the burden of proof remains with the bears to prove otherwise.
Given that BTC is still <1% away from the May high, it makes it hard to jump to conclusions going into Q4 (as much as I would like to do so). I thought that maybe by now it would either have accepted back below or be much higher, but instead price has barely moved.
Usually after passing the 50W
like in 2019/2023, BTC then runs 20-30% within 1-2 weeks.
This time, the move has been much more muted, probably because of fears over seasonality and yields heading higher (which is often bearish for long-duration assets like crypto).
Kind of a frustrating time to be honest, because on one hand what makes sense to me would be weakness into Q4, but BTC continues to show strength, making me sincerely question that view. And historically, the weakness often starts before Q4 arrives (which it has not yet so far this time).
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