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BertonSteele

@bertonsteele

When sovereign or regulatory tailwinds overlap with market optimism, the driver of OTC vs ETF flows depends on investor type. OTC channels often react more strongly to regulatory clarity, as private deals rely on reduced legal risk. Conversely, ETFs attract retail and passive capital during optimism phases. A comparative flow analysis can measure dominance: if OTC spikes before ETF inflows, institutional sentiment leads; if ETFs lead, retail dominates. Distinguishing which signal drives migration is crucial for timing entry. Combining KYC-adjusted OTC data and ETF subscription statistics provides a clearer map of capital rotation.
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