Adam Baybutt

@baybutt

31 Following

64 Followers

Adam Baybutt pfp

The elusive one-handed economist… JPow tightens 25 bps with the left, Eases another $100B with the right.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

An oxymoron: Risk-free asset.

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

If only one had access to a real time measure of everyone’s likelihood to withdraw deposits tomorrow…

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

“Why is this AI being so mean to us?” Um, who do you think it learned it from?!

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Taleb strikes again. https://i.imgur.com/Cx8TftF.jpg

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Tokenterminal.com looking best in class for onchain valuation metrics.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

So Gary and his cronies can steal $30MM from Kraken under the guise of “protecting the public”, but Was anyone actually misled about an investment product? Seems more like: “you are doing business without our permission.”

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

A super draft mental model: US politicians are competing primarily on dimension of fundraising (given -> ad spend -> votes). In kind of red queen race on this dim. Politicians don’t realize dimensions of character and policy are so poorly explored. It seems the bar is incredibly low.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

It def seems correct to be Altman-level optimistic. Eg: 2020: -world pop: ~8B -global wealth: ~$510,000B -wealth per cap: $60k 2100: -world pop: ~10.5B -global wealth: $30,000,000B -wealth per cap: $600k Ten times as rich in a few gen. (Assume: our world in data pop growth; ~only~ 3% real return on wealth.)

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

import time import fc while True: fc.cast(“ A committee of twelve unelected Americans sets global asset prices.”) time.sleep(60*60*24*7)

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Hard and decentralized money is the norm. It was only 50 years ago that Nixon ended convertibility of USD to gold. Bretton woods only ~30 years before that. Hard reserve currency was norm for thousands of years. Fiat will end soon.

2 replies

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

risk adjusted return at 16k US token per BTC….👀 Just think, in the limit, there are “21MM hodlers” who won’t sell below significant sum. Easily.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Layoffs are giving hard lessons of how money printing distorts prices causing misallocated capital.

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

What’s “price impact” of Elon buys twitter -> trump back before midterms -> probability Republicans sweep Congress Predictit has probability jumping 4% from Wed-Thurs….

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Low key think folks are way over reacting to interest rate hikes and other headwinds. The dot com bubble signaled the coming web1+2 boom. Crypto bubble signaled rise of web3. Coming AI bubble signal rise of AGI. Just gotta find the right price

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

A stretch…. How could we measure a cantillon effect of GFC QE on consumer inflation in last 24 months? That is, is there any credibility that GFC QE is contributing significantly to CPI a decade later?

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Tech equities more volatile than large cap crypto past few weeks. Gilts buried in 2022. Makes you wonder about “we have to regulate to protect retail from vol/losses!”….

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Tbh, We should be celebrating crypto hasn’t fallen further Gravity has come back to financial assets as we go 0->4 in FF rate BTC/ETH finding their idiosyncratic vol/return The everything bubble is winding down?

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Happy Columbus Day! May we continue to explore as our progeny remember “what we did to make their lives possible.” The greatest 4 minutes on why We are explorers: -> https://youtu.be/plTRdGF-ycs

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Adam Baybutt pfp

Sustained rise in VIX moving average since 2019. Lingers constantly

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction