Barinkruk (barinkruk)

The consensus, literally everywhere you look, is that September is going to be a red month. And while this can still hold true, it doesn't mean we can't pump the first week of the month to trap before more downside. That said, anywhere between 1 to 6 months, I expect prices to be much higher. In 2016 and 2020, the real bull market started only after the U.S. elections were completed. I think 2025 will be a great year, but I also think we will start seeing price appreciation in Q4 2024 at the latest. I think #ETH and ETH Beta offer the best R:R among the large chains. I believe it will outperform SOL and BTC. Almost everything of quality is built on ETH. If quality projects lead the next rally, it will be much more sustainable and long-lasting.

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What could be the future crypto catalyst? 1.More crypto(non-Bitcoin only) institutional products like: Fidelity Crypto ETF Index and Coinbase 500 crypto index driving alt adoptions and sentiment up 2.Domino effect of more banks/institutions having Bitcoin/crypto exposure 3.Bitcoin made new ATH w/o rate cuts/money printing. Best is yet to come 5.Harris adopts a more pro-crypto stance, easing fears in the crypto community making the pre-election period easier for debasement trades. Trump winning is still a possibility 6.Gary Gensler resigning Smaller but positive signs: 7. Continued steps towards a crypto legal framework in Turkey, India, and China show that crypto is here to stay. With good seasonality in Q4/Q1, CZ's release from jail in September, sentiment is back in the very negative extremes. 8)Harris : Trump odds have likely hit a ceiling. I expect these odds to stabilize from here on or move towards a more 50/50 split going forward.

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"Cautiously bullish" is the current overall sentiment. Amazing given how far up we are on BTC and ETH. Divergence if you will. But sentiment only matters in the mega extremes. Me - bullish for the next 30-60 days. Set targets now, before greed gets the better of you.

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BTC down and alts up will be poetic. Could happen though. Alts sold off in anticipation of BTC going down. Priced in. News flow was heavily skewed towards BTC , but that won’t last forever. OI has reset across the board.

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LDO, W and others up while BTC is down. Doesn't seem so crazy anymore, does it. We had months of BTC centric news while alts collapsed last 2-3 months in anticipation of what we are seeing now. Meaning alts/usd downside is more or less priced and ,imo, limited. I expect many alt/btc pairs to continue outperforming.

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I think memes will likely underperform in the 2nd half compared to other crypto sectors. Doge and some political memes are exceptions. Which sector offers a higher probability to 5x from here and which offers better protection against downside. It ain't memes to me.

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Brent Donnelly pulled up data in 2023 showing that whoever leads in a preelection year by a good margin rarely ends up winning. Biden will likely step down by the mid or end of this month, and Trump's win is not guaranteed. So, volatility is to be expected.

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