BalmashCrypto (balmash)

Bitcoin has not yet reached the point of complete capitulation (CryptoQuant). Key indicators are currently bearish, not in the extreme bearish phase needed for a reversal. For example, the realized price of BTC, which historically served as a strong support zone in previous bearish cycles, is currently in the $50,000-$55,000 range.

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Bitcoin hit $60,000 and quickly rebounded to $70,000. The 5-year support block held back the decline and is rebounding according to plan. For a bullish scenario to be considered, the price now needs to consolidate firmly above $80,000.

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Global liquidity continues to grow. Bitcoin has been following this index's dynamics for quite some time now, with a lag of a couple of months. Those absolutely convinced of a relentless decline in BTC should take heed.

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Bitcoin at 102,500, unfortunately, became the main scenario just yesterday. Constantly testing support often leads to a breakout, not a rebound. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 21 (Extreme Fear). Historically, declines have ended when this metric drops below 10. There's still room to fall... but if the price can return above $110,000, the main scenario will again become bullish.

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💥Look how closely Bitcoin follows the M2 global liquidity chart. It has always been like this, this is the most reliable metric in BTC analytics. 📈Now we must take into account that this indicator has been growing for a long time, and BTC, with a slight delay in time, begins to follow it. It is quite reasonable to assume that the correction in crypto is complete, and now growth will begin in the area of ​​the historical maximum. Although there are no guarantees.

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Bitcoin has touched dynamic support for the fourth time, and I'm starting to lean toward a breakout. A downward breakout from such a large bearish wedge could trigger a downtrend for several months. The situation is tense, and I'm eager to be wrong.

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Bitcoin has fallen to $99,000 and is trying to rebound—not bad at all. It could have plummeted like a stone. At best, the rebound will now test the green block, which became resistance after the breakout. It looks impressive, and breaking through it won't be easy. While we're below it, sellers are clearly in control.

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