@aviationdoctor.eth

2/2 Anyway, I’ve written about this before. This cast is really about introducing the framework of *cliodynamics*. Clio, daughter of Zeus, was the Greek muse of history. Cliodynamics, then, are the quantitative and scientific study of history, analyzing the ebbs and flows of demographics, religiosity, elite structure, resource availability, etc. to predict the rise and fall of civilizations through what’s called a structural-demographic theory model (SDT). The key thesis behind SDT is that history follows 50–60 year secular cycles, and that structural pressures eventually build up above adaptive capacity. There are arguably three such pressures right now. From a social standpoint, wages for non-elite labor has been stagnating in real terms since the 1970s. Inflation has hit the basic necessities of housing, healthcare, and education. Life expectancy has plateaued. Social trust has eroded in the era of fake news, and now generative AI. From an economic standpoint, the credentialed classes have exploded in scale: law, medicine, finance, academia, politics, media, tech, etc. There are too many “elites” aspiring to too few positions, and they are divided by the winner-take-all income structure and the weaponization of their respective factions against each other (think media moguls and tech billionaires). This has led to the hyper-polarization of politics and the sabotage of institutions (e.g. abusing courts). Parts of capitalism have become a moralized zero-sum PvP, of which our very own crypto casino is just a parochial embodiment. Thirdly, the fiscal situation is dire. Sovereign debt is an all-time high, yet the consensus on redistribution is at an all-time low. The jingoism and boorishness that now characterize the executive are favoring performative feel-good actions over deep institutional reforms that are needed to address long-term infrastructure decay, unsustainable entitlements, and tragedy-of-the-commons like climate change. Given these positive pressures, the SDT now points to the US being in a late integrative, early disintegrative stage, much like it was in the 1850s–1870s and 1910s–1930s, or France in the pre-revolutionary 1780s (elite factionalism and fiscal strain), or the late Roman republic. The important idea here is that this is *not* the result of a culture drift. Cliodynamics treat culture as an output, not a factor. In that sense, the (broadly speaking) red and blue culture clash is nothing more than a signaling device in elite competition. Americans haven’t suddenly become irrational, or fascists, or whatever; they have merely become polarized *because* the structural pressures above require it. The current situation is *not* an ideological byproduct; ideology is just the post-hoc justification. The more people understand this reversal of causality, the more they can distance themselves from the reflexive identity conflict that’s tearing them apart. The other lesson here is that peaceful reform is rare. Historically, disintegrative societies have stabilized via major wars, radial reforms, or external shocks that require elites to coordinate. I was briefly (and never seriously) hopeful that 3I/ATLAS would be that external shock (imagine alien life, headed for us!) but alas it’s just another space rock. So, earthly primates will keep primating and will need to figure this out by themselves. By the way, Girard’s theory that is so dear to Thiel and his ilk is adjacent to that, though it utilizes a different causal chain. Under Girard, mimetic desire causes escalating rivalry, which eventually boils over and leads to scapegoating: the society-wide PvP then coalesces around one single group, and unanimity around victimizing that group allows society to restore calm and order. Right now, it should be obvious who that scapegoat is, and also why a large section of American society looks forward to its violent expulsion, even at the cost of tremendous collateral damage as we’re seeing right now.

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