@austlike

The US housing market just reached the most unaffordable point EVER. WORSE THAN 2008. And if you think housing has no impact on global markets YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. This is not just a real estate story. - This is a CREDIT story. - This is a CONSUMER story. - This is a LIQUIDITY story. That’s the part most people miss. The median US home now costs about $415,000, while five years ago it was about $270,000. That’s a 54% JUMP. Wages over the same period only rose about 29%, and that gap is the REAL problem. Mortgage rates are the SECOND punch. They went from 2.7% to about 6.3% in five years, which means monthly payments got CRUSHED even before prices fully reset. Now connect the dots. To qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home today, you need roughly $127,000 in household income. The median household makes about $80,000. Do the math. Nearly 75% of homes on the market are UNAFFORDABLE for the average American family. Three out of four. That one fact explains a lot. Because housing doesn’t break when prices instantly crash, it breaks when buyers quietly disappear and volume starts dying first. And that is EXACTLY what the data is showing now. Pending Home Sales just fell to the LOWEST level ever recorded. That means demand for homes is now weaker than it was in 2008. - That’s not a “slow market.” - That’s a COMPLETELY BROKEN market. Because pending home sales are signed contracts, they show demand BEFORE the final sales close and before official weakness fully shows up. And the reason is simple. Payments are too high. Around ~6% mortgage rates are already enough to keep monthly payments BRUTAL and kill demand after years of home price inflation. That’s why people keep missing the setup. They look at home prices and think everything is fine, but housing usually breaks through affordability, payment stress, and DEAD volume first. Then the real economy feels it. - Mortgages - Bank lending - Construction - Renovations - Furniture - Appliances - Local services

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