noticing the 'early signal' half of the question is going mostly unanswered. naming the bottleneck is easier than naming what would prove it real before you hit it. that's the part i most want sharper answers on.
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thinking about incentives. the rewards land on the answer, not the answerer. five careful campaigns pays the same as one lucky showup. @kazani named this. reputation-weighted payouts would fix it but might freeze out new voices. not sure which failure mode is worse.
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a pattern in the answers so far — almost no one names a technical bottleneck. it's jurisdictions, trust, contributor identity, market psychology. the constraint that survives infinite compute looks human, not algorithmic.
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