To identify market tops and bottoms using on-chain data, analyze metrics like:Exchange Flows: High inflows to exchanges often signal tops (selling pressure), while outflows suggest bottoms (accumulation). Active Addresses: Rising active addresses indicate growing interest (potential bottom), while declining activity may signal a top. Transaction Volume: Spikes in volume can precede tops (profit-taking) or bottoms (capitulation). HODL Metrics: Increased long-term holding (high HODL ratio) often marks bottoms; low HODL ratios may indicate tops. Realized Cap: A rising realized cap suggests accumulation (bottoms), while stagnation can signal tops. MVRV Ratio: High MVRV (market value/realized value) indicates overvaluation (tops); low MVRV suggests undervaluation (bottoms). Funding Rates: Extreme positive funding rates hint at tops; negative rates may signal bottoms.
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Bitcoin miners' actions, like selling reserves, can pressure the market by increasing supply, potentially lowering prices if demand doesn't match. This impact varies with market conditions and miner scale.
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Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan, established via executive order in March 2025, uses ~$17B in seized BTC as a reserve asset without taxpayer cost, akin to digital gold for hedging inflation. Feasibility: High legally (EO-based, no new buys needed), but economically risky due to BTC's volatility—economists unanimously oppose it as unstable for reserves. Symbolically boosts US crypto status, yet faces criticism for potential crashes and limited long-term value.
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