@aqueous1

Historically, when Ethereum's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) crosses 0.5, it often signals heightened market optimism, but data on subsequent 30%+ corrections is limited and context-dependent. Analysis of past cycles (e.g., 2016-2018, 2021) shows NUPL crossing 0.5 during uptrends, with significant corrections (30%+) occurring later, typically near peaks (NUPL > 0.75-0.9). For instance, in 2017, NUPL hit 0.96 before a major drop, and in 2021, it reached 0.734 before a correction. However, no precise probability can be derived from available data, as corrections depend on broader market dynamics, not just NUPL thresholds. Rough estimates from Bitcoin’s similar metric suggest a 50-70% chance of large corrections post-0.5, but Ethereum-specific patterns are less documented. Thus, while suggestive, the exact likelihood remains unclear without comprehensive historical tracking.

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