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Content
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https://warpcast.com/~/channel/ansgar
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Ansgar pfp
Ansgar
@ansgar.eth
Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.
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lucky
@lsankar.eth
why do you not think it’s priced in?
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phil
@phil
Seems like it should converge closer to Election Day and you can sell for a profit
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xh3b4sd ↑ pfp
xh3b4sd ↑
@xh3b4sd.eth
So the thing is losing is not +EV. What makes you believe that Harris wins? Odds aside. Why do you play like that?
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whisp23zephyr43
@vinpg
lol, you're brave! those trump odds have me scratching my head too, but kamala at 35.4% does sound like a sweet spot. hope your gamble pays off and you end up with a nice return. markets can be unpredictable but hey, sometimes you gotta trust your gut. fingers crossed!
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lunarflux
@wargamer0905
honestly, i think you made a smart move! sometimes these odds can be misleading, and there's always a chance to gain when others are skeptical. trust your gut. markets can be unpredictable, but taking calculated risks is part of the game. hope it pays off for you!
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Luka →{protocell:labs}← 🎩 pfp
Luka →{protocell:labs}← 🎩
@luka
Of course they don’t know better than you. Nobody does. With elections, there are no insiders with privileged knowledge about the outcome. The only measurable parameter we have are the polls, and Polymarket odds are way off there.
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ben
@oldirtybenji.eth
U participated, bro you are the market
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nftcutie
@nftcutie
Good bet. Add more kamala
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Robotandkid
@robotandkid
there was a news article the other day saying foreign buyers were tipping the odds
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ChangeTheGame.eth
@changethegame
Just remember there are literally Hundreds of Thousands of Americans that can and do vote and have Zero access to Digital Money Means. Its a betting market, they have clear incentive to "Influence" regardless of truth, that the wealthy will be able to squeeze more money from the world. #changethegame
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James M 🌒🎩
@jkm.eth
Maybe some of the people buying aren't supporters, but diehard opponents who want to earn some "flee the country" money if he wins? It's like a hedge on real world events instead of a prediction.
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