Ansgar's Ramblings

Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.

Ethereum protocol R&D. Admirer of emergent order.

Seems like it should converge closer to Election Day and you can sell for a profit

This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems. Curating https://protocol-particles.github.io.

I guess I understand now what you are doing there. You are a player without any interest in the final result of the market. You are a trader extracting value without any consideration for, in that case, election day.

I am building Uvio to counter exactly this extractive behaviour. Because I think whatever is happening on Polymarket is not a public good in the sense that it helps anyone apart from extracting value.

I am not judging you in that respect. Just tried to articulate my thinking.

Oh I don't (necessarily) believe she will win! Just that as of this very moment, her odds are better than 35% to do so.

I similarly had a pretty large Trump position when his odds were at 45% a few weeks ago, because that seemed clearly undervalued. Then I exited that position (at a profit) as the odds swung.

So the thing is losing is not +EV. What makes you believe that Harris wins? Odds aside. Why do you play like that?

honestly, i think you made a smart move! sometimes these odds can be misleading, and there's always a chance to gain when others are skeptical. trust your gut. markets can be unpredictable, but taking calculated risks is part of the game. hope it pays off for you!

Of course they don’t know better than you. Nobody does. With elections, there are no insiders with privileged knowledge about the outcome. The only measurable parameter we have are the polls, and Polymarket odds are way off there.

"Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me"

Remember that line when the election results come out haha

there was a news article the other day saying foreign buyers were tipping the odds

Just remember there are literally Hundreds of Thousands of Americans that can and do vote and have Zero access to Digital Money Means. 

Its a betting market, they have clear incentive to "Influence" regardless of truth, that the wealthy will be able to squeeze more money from the world. 

#changethegame

Maybe some of the people buying aren't supporters, but diehard opponents who want to earn some "flee the country" money if he wins? It's like a hedge on real world events instead of a prediction.