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Recession Odds Surge to 61% on Kalshi After Trump’s Tariff Order
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are placing a 61% probability on the United States entering a recession in 2025, following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order announced on April 2.
The figure is based on the standard definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—as tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Recession odds on Kalshi have nearly doubled since March 20 and now align with similar predictions on rival prediction platform Polymarket, where traders currently put the likelihood at 60%.
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