@abj0404
On April 10, the University of Michigan published a 74-year record low in consumer sentiment: 47.6.
Everyone ran it as a live read on the American economy.
98% of those interviews were completed before April 7 — the day the ceasefire was announced.
The number captured peak war panic. By the time it dropped, that panic had already paused.
The data was accurate. The world it described was gone.
A lagging instrument presented as a live signal. The record low became the story. The timing gap became a footnote.
Markets don't trade on reality. They trade on the most recent number.
And the most recent number was a ghost.
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